Adyen’s financial outlook has been hit by tariffs and the global trade war, with CEO Ingo Uytdehaage noting that “the tariffs are impacting some of our Asia Pacific merchants.” First-half 2025 net revenue came in at $1.27 billion versus a $1.3 billion forecast, and earnings before interest, taxes and amortization were $635 million, below estimates. The firm said its earlier forecast of “slight net revenue growth” is now “unlikely” amid macro uncertainty. While Adyen reported wallet share gains and new customer wins, analysts warned that “the downward revision in full year net revenue growth guidance and commentary suggesting a persistent macro headwind… will likely overshadow the positive data points.” To offset U.S. tariff exposure, Adyen plans to route more transactions from China to non-U.S. consumers. A key pressure point is the suspension of the U.S. de minimis rule, which had exempted imports under $800 from tariffs—impacting large Chinese e-commerce firms like Temu and Shein and thus slowing APAC merchant growth. Analysts caution that cross-border e-commerce and discretionary online retail are most at risk, while a weaker dollar could provide some relief. “Tariffs are a tax on imports and are increasing the price of goods… they will very directly reduce commerce and consequently payments,” said Eric Grover of Intrepid Ventures. Adyen’s exposure outside the U.S., particularly in Asia, makes it more vulnerable, and with inflation rising and labor markets weakening, its underperformance may be an early warning for the wider payments industry.