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‘White-space’ opportunity for buying or originating fintech loans is estimated at US$280 billion over 5 years; banks are partnering private-credit funds to originate and distribute loans off balance sheet expanding fee-based revenue while offloading credit risk

August 8, 2025 //  by Finnovate

Fintech founders are facing a significant challenge as giant private-credit funds are lining up with term sheets so large they would have broken cap tables a year ago. A joint study from BCG and QED Investors puts the “white-space” opportunity at US$280 billion over the next five years: capital earmarked for buying or originating fintech loans. Private credit has grown nearly ten-fold since 2010 to roughly US$1.5 trillion of assets under management (AUM) in 2024, and consultants expect it to hit US$3.5 trillion by 2028, a compound annual growth rate north of 19%. Big banks are partnering with private-credit titans to originate and distribute loans off balance sheet, such as Citi x Apollo and Citi x Carlyle. The model is simple: banks keep the origination and servicing fees, funds take the credit risk, and regulators get comfort that risky assets live outside the deposit-backed system. Private-credit exuberance has pushed unitranche pricing down, but funds can lever those assets 1.5-2x and still net solid returns, making it an attractive asset class. However, many CEOs prefer a 14 percent cost of capital that preserves ownership over a 35% down round in an unforgiving venture market. The venture capital power-law reset threatens that maths, as private-credit recycling threatens that maths. Funds are aggressively scouring growth markets where banking pull-back is most acute, such as India, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, where dollar funding married to local-currency wallets is a tantalizing carry trade, provided FX hedges hold. However, there are several risks to consider, including credit deterioration, funding squeeze, regulatory shock, and FX blow-ups in emerging markets. To mitigate these risks, investors should monitor the spread compression Pace, Reg-Tech Build-Out, Private-Fund Reporting, Basel Endgame Final Rule, and Structured-Credit Revival.

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Category: Essential Guidance

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