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Affirm Card’s GMV rises 115% YoY to $807 million in third quarter with 2 million active cardholders; estimates a 10 percentage points hit to GMV growth in a recession scenario

May 9, 2025 //  by Finnovate

Affirm saw significant growth in its fiscal third quarter, with gross merchandise value (GMV) and revenues both increasing 36% year over year to $8.6 billion and $783 million, respectively, though guidance suggests a slight deceleration in growth rates ahead.  As for the Affirm Card, the $807 million in GMV was up 115% year over year, with 2 million active cardholders. All told, the company counts 21.9 million active consumers, up 23% from a year ago. Merchant tallies gathered 20% to 358,000. Charge-offs are trending toward 3.5%, which tracks to expectations, and loss rates of Pay in 4 loans are below 1%. CFO Rob O’Hare said, “We are seeing really healthy repayment rates come through. We do about a $100 million of GMV a day. We’re not seeing any signs of stress with the consumer in the repayment rates. We actually saw a slight uptick in prepayments. And so we take that as a positive credit signal.”  Levchin said that 0% offers have a positive ripple effect.  Guidance for the current quarter looks for $815 million to $845 million in top line, which implies $830 million at the midpoint, and which missed the Street’s consensus at about $840 million (revenue growth year over year as measured in the fiscal fourth quarter last year was 48%). Affirm expressed confidence in its ability to manage various macroeconomic environments, noting that in a stress scenario, they expect increased demand from shoppers seeking payment flexibility while being able to adjust approvals to maintain target credit results. “Strategically, we believe we have all the tools necessary to manage our business effectively in any macroeconomic environment. In a mild stress scenario [relatively few jobs lost], we would expect to see a gradual uptick in delinquencies; in a more severe one, perhaps a more rapid increase. But in any event, there would be an increase in demand for Affirm as “shoppers seek the optionality of more time to pay for their purchases, and merchants look for ways to make price increases more palatable to buyers.” The company’s models estimate that in a “recession scenario of a ~50% increase in credit stress, a reduction in approvals required to maintain our target credit results would ‘cost’ us about 10 percentage points of GMV growth.”

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